Chances are, mail-in voting for this year’s general election will proceed as usual. The state will mail out absentee ballots to voters in the coming weeks, meeting the official deadline of October 1. And a significant portion of those voters will choose to return their ballots by mail rather than going in person to the polls on Nov. 3.

That’s according to Sue Gage, Brandon’s long-time town clerk. But Gage said that if new Trump administration rules related to mail-in voting manage to fend off legal challenges before the election, all bets are off.

“The result would be, okay, we’re not mailing any ballots. Everybody has to come to the polls to vote,” she said. “It would be a nightmare. We wouldn’t have time.”

In March, President Trump issued an executive order instructing the Secretary of Homeland Security to create a list of eligible voters in each state, called the “State Citizenship List,” and directing the United States Postal Service to mail ballots only to voters on this list.

The Postal Service has already taken steps to implement the changes. The aim, according to the executive order, is to ensure “that only citizens receive and cast ballots, reducing the risk of fraud and protecting the integrity of Federal elections.”

The proposed changes have met stiff opposition and are currently mired in court cases. On August 26, Vermont joined 24 other states in suing the USPS for attempting to seize control over a process constitutionally reserved to the states.

“Mail-in voting is safe and secure and makes it more accessible for Vermonters, especially across our rural state, to participate in our democracy,” VT Attorney General Charity Clark said in a press release about the lawsuit. “The Constitution makes the states primarily responsible for elections. This USPS rule unnecessarily inserts the Postal Service into Vermont’s voting process and will serve mainly to cause confusion and chaos weeks before the election.”

Local safeguards in place

To create the State Citizenship List, the Homeland Security secretary would need to gather voter data from each state. Gage said that the Secretary of State’s office has told clerks across the state not to comply with federal requests for their town voter lists, called “checklists.”

“We’ve been instructed to push that up to the state level,” she said.

New this year, anyone requesting a copy of the checklist from a town office in Vermont must sign an affidavit stating they will not give the list to a federal agency or any person acting on behalf of a federal entity for purposes including voter registration.

Gage says the state is unlikely to comply with such requests, either.

“We’re not going to supply a list of names to the federal government,” she said. “That is not going to happen.”

She said she supports the Secretary of State’s position for several reasons.

“States make election laws. It’s not fodder for the federal government, and they shouldn’t be involved in it,” she said. “I believe in that as well, because states know their people. We know our community here. The clerks in Vermont, they know their voters.”

In addition to the risk of practical difficulty, she has broader concerns.

“I think the bigger thing would be, if the federal government were in charge, there would be voter restrictions and there would be voter suppression, and it would be harder for people to vote,” she said.

Gage said that during her 12 years as town clerk, she has seen no evidence of voter fraud or noncitizen voting.

“There is not election fraud,” she said. “It does not exist.”

In several instances, she said, noncitizen residents have asked her if they were allowed to vote or started to fill out a registration form. She told them noncitizens may not vote in Brandon, even in town elections, and they did not proceed.

Voter participation a top priority

Mail-in voting is widespread in Vermont. According to the Secretary of State’s office, in the 2024 general election 64% of voters turned in their ballot early, largely by mail (absentee ballots can either be returned by mail, placed in an official drop box, or brought in person to the polling place on Election Day).

In Brandon, data provided by Gage shows that 48% of votes were absentee in the 2024 general election, and 56% were absentee in 2020, during the Covid-19 pandemic. That was the first year the state sent absentee ballots to all qualified voters. Before that, absentee voting rates in Brandon were much lower: 20% in 2016, 14% in 2008, and 7% in 1996, for example. The absentee voting data is not broken down by party.

Gage sees evidence that universal absentee ballots increased voter turnout in local elections. Towns are not required to send absentee ballots to all voters for town meeting votes, but from 2021 through 2024, Brandon elected to do so. Those elections saw participation rates of 44%, 32%, 39%, and 47%, respectively. By comparison, the rates for town meeting voting from 2017 through 2020 were 22%, 22%, 24%, and 39%, respectively (the 2020 town meeting vote coincided with a presidential primary, which typically brings out more voters). Town meeting voter participation in earlier years had fluctuated widely.

Gage recommends that voters check their registration status before the election by visiting the Vermont Voter Portal. If they have any difficulty accessing the portal or encounter technical problems, they should contact their town clerk by phone or in person. Voters may register even on Election Day, in person at the polls.

“The important thing for me is that everybody gets an equal opportunity to vote, however that may be,” she said. “I try to make it as easy as possible for everybody.”